Here is Why China Won’t Attack Taiwan

by | Jan 21, 2023 |

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First of all, every geopolitical issue is defined by three things — geographics, demographics, and economics. Secondly, we have to understand nothing about China is ever as it appears. We can start with the myth of Communist Hegemony in China. As Daniel Greenfield notes:

The scenes from China show that there is a spectrum of opposition, from anger over financial fraud and Zero COVID to traditional calls for democracy and an end to Communist rule. I don’t believe that they will succeed, but the regime has been rattled badly. Zero COVID was to show that people would jump through any hoop, and instead, it showed that there is a sizable undercurrent of public anger, and despite a generation of indoctrination and total media and social media censorship, outrage lurks below the surface.

China is a huge country, but the vast majority of its population, of almost two billion people, live in an area no larger than the land mass East of the Mississippi River in America and are primarily ethnic Han. The rest of China is either very mountainous or very arid. It is sparsely populated, and not that productive agriculturally or industrially. These other ethnic groups hate the Han, and view the central government as illegitimate, and that’s particularly true of Tibet, which is an unending source of resistance to the Chinese Communist Party, which is stunningly corrupt.

Interestingly many of the Han also consider the Chinese government to be illegitimate, and the communist’s handling of the economy and the covid tyranny has enhanced that view. China’s economy is a myth, and finally, many geopolitical analysts are finally acknowledging that. Xii is a true believer in Maoist economics and is driving their economy down the drain.

They’re now provoking India in the Himalayas, for reasons I fail to understand other than they think they will intimate them into believing China will invade India from the North if they interfere with their activity in the South China Sea and Taiwan. They’re unendingly interfering in governments all over the world, which includes their Belt and Road Initiatives, and picking fights with Japan along with the Philippine Islands, Vietnam, and other South East Asian countries involving the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and what’s being called the nine-dash line area claimed by China and rejected by the rest of the world, which China is attempting to enforce with military intimidation.

India, Japan, and the Philippines are reacting to that with military initiatives of their own, especially Japan, and Taiwan is working an international lifeline via what they’re calling a Parliamentary Outreach. This is not going well for China, and it appears they’re shocked. Imagine that. 

India gave the Dalai Lama asylum after Tibet’s 1959 uprising. China decided to launch what was, in reality, an “object lesson war” against India in 1962. That’s an important event in understanding China’s military policies. They love playing the biggest, baddest bully boy on the block with their “object lesson military actions.” They really don’t like full-scale wars, and for good reason, the last one was the Korean War with America, and they took a massive beating throwing away untold thousands of young men’s lives with their tactics.

China really doesn’t have the capability to extend its power much beyond its borders, which they’re working to fix that by building aircraft carriers, with 25-year-old Russian technology, the technology they’ve stolen from others, and a failed economy.

For some time, we’ve been hearing reports the Chinese Communists are going to invade Taiwan and are practicing amphibious invasions, test-launching missiles, and they provocatively keep invading Taiwan’s air space playing intimidation games. Well, there are some things, no matter the rhetoric or provocations by Xi and his government, that represent substance over illusion.

The Chinese know a few things:

> First, this landing they’re practicing is just a big show. The U.S. Marines are the greatest military force in the world for amphibious landings, and it took more than practice to become good at it.

> Secondly, they must know their losses will be massive, in both men and equipment, if they attempt such a landing. Taiwan has a substantial military that would devastate such a landing force; even if they’ve never fought a real war, they’ll be fighting for their homes.

> Third, they have to know even the Biden administration, as stupid as they are, will have to jump in to save Taiwan, even if it’s just involving U.S. air power, and that alone will devastate the Chinese Air Force, their Marine landing force, and any ships they may employ. U.S. Naval aviators are the finest in the world. That’s why they’re called Top Gun! And currently, there are three carrier task forces in South East Asia, two East of the Philippine Islands and one East of Borneo.

> Fourth, they know if they launch a landing and are repelled, their military credibility throughout all of S. E. Asia will tumble like a house of cards. They can’t afford that since they’re attempting to impose an economic hegemony throughout all of Asia via military intimidation.

> Fifth, such an action will trigger economic retaliation the CCP can ill afford. China is actually broke, and I wish more people read the book Khrushchev’s Cold War: The Inside Story of an American Adversary. as it outlines just how devastating all that military buildup was to their economy, and that was from the early 1950s, hence the need for maskirovka to make them bigger than they were. China has the exact same problem, and they’re now having a demographic pyramid problem.

Will they attack Taiwan? No! There are too many negatives and few positives for such an action; even if they were to win, there would have to be long-term political and economic consequences they can’t afford.

What this will do is bring more American, Japanese, Indian, and Australian, forces into the area, just as Soviet outrageous claims triggered an arms race that broke the Soviets back economically; this will trigger responses they won’t like and can’t handle.

If Xi really had the intention of invading Taiwan, the disaster Putin created in his attack on Ukraine is a wake-up call for Xi. China has far more troubles than Taiwan. Xi is now facing a massive outbreak of covid in his population, and the reason for that was the massive lockdowns.

Since their society was, in effect, quarantined, they never were able to develop herd immunity to this virus, and I think combining that with these false vaccines, that are demonstrating they seem to make those vaccinated more susceptible to the virus, Xi has a lot of internal issues. The only resistance these lockdowns created was resistance and demonstrations against Xi in at least 17 cities around the country. They were clearly spontaneous, which many believe was the real reason for more and tighter lockdowns ⏤ because that spontaneity has to be frightening to the CCP. More lockdowns weren’t to stop this virus, but an effort to stop demonstrations against Xi and the Chinese Communist Party.

Invading Taiwan may be great rhetoric for the population in order to divert attention from Xi’s failures, but it’s not a reality.

Image: NRK

Rich Kozlovich

Rich Kozlovich has been a writing partner with Dr. Jay Lehr, who has now passed, for many years dealing with environmental issues and more. Rich, in order to honor our friend, Jay Lehr, is pleased to be able to continue writing for America Out Loud as a regular contributor.

Rich is a forty-year veteran of the structural pest control industry, having served for over 25 years on many industry association boards dealing with the regulations and legislation that impact those who manufacture, distribute and apply pesticides and fertilizers. He’s now the publisher of Paradigms and Demographics, which he calls a not-for-profit passion. His blog motto is, "Everything is to be Questioned."

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Daniel
Daniel
17 days ago

Yeah, Yeah,Yeah, China’s going to collapse, Putin died of Cancer after he lost the war in 3 weeks the U.S. economy is going gangbusters, and the Covid vaccine is safe and effective. We’ve heard it all before. And every bit of it from the most corrupt Government and media the world has ever known. Including The Roman Empire. What were you saying again? You’re the media, right? All you’ve done is perfectly describe our country.

Last edited 17 days ago by Daniel
Donna
Donna
Reply to  Daniel
12 days ago

So Daniel, with one large sweep, you lump and generalize very different situations in very different countries with derision and cynicism. I agree to an extent -read, listen but verify. But how much do other journalists write about China and facts within China. I get your emotion and attitude but different takes from different sources is added information.

Auntie Vaxina
Auntie Vaxina
17 days ago

Building ships with old Russian technology? What about the new missile technology the Clintons sold to them?

Peter Rabbit
Peter Rabbit
Reply to  Auntie Vaxina
17 days ago

And, Russia has long range missile technology that we have no defense against.

Ann Basbas
Ann Basbas
17 days ago

Reading all this makes sense, however it reminds me the situation in Poland a year ago, when nearly every commentator, journalist and polititians was trying to explain/justify “why Russia will not attack Ukrain”…

Stan
Stan
Reply to  Ann Basbas
17 days ago

How could a “pest control” expert be wrong about China?

Ross
Ross
Reply to  Stan
17 days ago

How very British of you.

Chaimd
Chaimd
Reply to  Ann Basbas
16 days ago

It’s almost like more and more the so-called the “experts” really aren’t, especially when when things don’t follow a set pattern from a textbook…

Peter Rabbit
Peter Rabbit
17 days ago

I do hope you’re right. I question your faith in the jabbed and woke U.S. military that is run by Milley, a general controlled by China.

cgdae
cgdae
Reply to  Rich Kozlovich
16 days ago

“…Putin’s massive bombardment isn’t getting working. His boots on the ground have given up ground.”

The X22report at https://rumble.com/c/X22Report has opined that perhaps Putin is not interested in conquering land but rather taking out: bio-weapons labs, money laundering, human trafficking, the nazi Azov battalion, etc?

cgdae
cgdae
17 days ago

I watched a video that described the difficulty of a China invasion of Taiwan because they must travel very far distance and the waters have islands controlled by Taiwan and because of the great distance the logistics of a land invasion would be problematic for a supply line

sail
sail
Reply to  cgdae
17 days ago

100 Miles is the distance of the Bahamas to Maimi

cgdae
cgdae
Reply to  sail
16 days ago

Could Taiwan Hold off A Chinese Invasion – YouTube
<code>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498</code&gt;

cgdae
cgdae
Reply to  sail
16 days ago

Could Taiwan Hold off A Chinese Invasion – YouTube
www (dot) youtube (dot) com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498

sail
sail
17 days ago

SLEEPER CELLS IN TAIWAN WILL DEVISTATE IT BEFORE A SINGLE BULLET IS SHOT

Joe
Joe
17 days ago

According to the “geographics, demographics and (much of the) economics”, Taiwan is China. Just sayin’.

Wayne
Wayne
16 days ago

Satan is given powers of sword, hunger, death, and beasts. Each are to be considered physically and spiritually.
·       The sword of war. The sword of the mouth.
·       The famine of starvation. The famine of hearing the word of God.
·       Bodily death. Spiritual death.
·       Beastly sickness and poisons. The dragon, lion, bear, and leopard.
We are on planet Earth where Death-Satan, has made the world as a wilderness with a beast system of rebellion.

OneOfTheAllies
OneOfTheAllies
16 days ago

An interesting article. Mainland Chinese people regard Taiwan as another province of China and the people as Chinese. So far, they patiently await a political solution to reunification. A military solution will be a pyrrhic victory at best.

Whilst I concur with your assessment re the skills and training of Navy aviators, technology moves on. The days of aircraft carrier groups being a threat to peer or near-peer forces is coming to an end. Supersonic and hypersonic missiles cannot be easily countered, cost far less than a carrier to produce and a single one can sink a carrier; they’re expensive sitting ducks. China has deployed such missiles and they have a range that keep carrier based aircraft from their shores.

US submarines are a far bigger danger to a Chinese invasion fleet than aircraft carriers.

The problem for the US and allies attempting to defend Taiwan is logistics and distance. The West has 10,000 miles of Pacific Ocean to cross, the Chinese only the Taiwan Straight. Does the US and allies have the shipping to supply armies on Taiwan and the fleet to protect it?

What the military-technical solution in Ukraine has shown is the inadequacy of weapons and munitions production in the West. Gone is the industrial might that was America in WW2. For example, the Ukraine uses the current annual production of 155mm shells in about three weeks.

President Xi has his problems, with a population of around 1.4 billion people, he’s responsible for 4.2 billion meals everyday to keep the people from revolting. But they also have their strengths. They produce far more engineers each year than the West graduates in all courses, and their universities focus on math, science, etc whilst Western universities pander to woke ideology, more concerned with race theories and what kind of victim/oppressor you are.

The Chinese don’t have Western problems recruiting into their services, their young people aren’t to fat, too dumb, too drugged or too criminal for the recruiters. Their military encourages masculinity in their troops, unlike Milley’s mommies boys and trannies.

As regards the Korean War, the Chinese perception is that they beat the armies of 17 nations to a standstill when they had nothing. Given the border on the 52 parallel to this day, perhaps they have a point.

Patriotism is commendable, but not at the expense of underestimating your opponents.

“Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. When you are ignorant of the enemy, but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril.”

Sun Tsu

CloseTheRanks
CloseTheRanks
9 days ago

While I appreciate your confidence in your positions, they are nevertheless disjointed and detached from reality.

Gnashing teeth and focusing on the geopolitical minutiae blinds the viewer to the macro trend which are far, far more important.

There is the distinct possibility this is done deliberately, a colossal distraction to keep us off-balance and out of focus.

For now, let’s assume you’re on the level.

The satanic forces in control today have been in control for hundreds of years. Hundreds. This is dynasty alive and well wherein these monsters have no national allegiance , no commonality with the useless eaters, and materialize their wickedness through the wholly owned channels of power. This Kazarian mafia run every bit of Media. All of the American military. Every university/education (ahem) All the financial deceptions and ‘system’ of finance.

The ancient psychopaths have galvanized their forces and technology is such that a ‘great reset’ can be enacted complete with digital slavery, militarized surveillance state, poisoning of minds, spirits and bodies.

FFS- look around. No one here gets out alive unless these Jewish infiltrators are removed. Fully.

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