Mathematical Modeling Illusions of Global Warming

by | Dec 18, 2018 |

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For three decades now, man caused global warming alarmists have harassed society with stories of gloom and doom resulting from their belief that the end of the world as we know it is imminent as a result of the carbon dioxide emitted into the air by the burning of fossil fuel.
They are exercising precisely what prominent writer H.L. Mencken described early in the past century as “the whole point of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed and hence clamorous to be lead to safety by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”. The man-caused global warming or climate change scare may well be the best hobgoblin ever conceived. 
It has half the world clamoring to be lead to safety from climate change without a shred of physical evidence. Every single statement issued to support these fear mongering claims now presented in a new 1500 page report from 13 separate agencies of the federal government by 300 Obama appointed scientists, has no basis in physical measurements or observations. What they do have are mathematical equations considered to be models of the Earth’s climate. They have only a handful of the hundreds of variables that do in fact impact our climate and the numbers inserted for the variables used are little more than guesses. Our government has financed more than one hundred efforts to model our planet for the better part of three decades. They continue to do so though none could ever predict the known past or after a decade of study accurately predicted what was to happen ten years later.
The problem facing real scientists who study climate with no paid for bias is that the public has no clue what a mathematical model actually is, how it works and what they can and can not do. So let’s try to simplify the subject in order to pull the wool back off the eyes of all Americans, and the rest of the world’s population as well.
There are many ways in which things or systems can be described. Before we build buildings or airplanes we make physical small scale models and test them against the stress and performances that will be required of them when they are actually built. When dealing with systems that are totally beyond our control we try and describe them with computer programs or mathematical equations that we hope may give answers to the questions we have about the system today and in the future. Historically mathematical descriptions of such systems were used to better understand how the system might work. We would attempt to understand the variables that affect the outcomes of the system.  Then we would alter the variables and see how the outcomes are effected. This is called sensitivity testing, the very best use of mathematical models.
Historically we were never foolish enough to make economic decisions based on predictions calculated from equations we think might control how nature works. This authors first introduction to using math to try and understand nature occurred almost 60 years ago performing graduate work on contaminated fluid transport in subsurface rocks. It was fun and instructive but never created a crystal ball of the future. That is exactly what the well paid math modelers throughout the academic world are now claiming the ability to do.
All problems can be viewed as having three stages, observation, modeling and prediction. Perhaps the most active area for mathematical modeling is the economy and the stock market. No one has ever succeeded in getting it right and there are far less variables than occur in determining the climate of our planet. For many years the Wall Street Journal selected five eminent economic analysts to select  a stock they were sure would rise in the following month. Then they had a chimpanzee throw five darts at a wall covered with that days stock market results. A month later they determined who did better choosing winners, the analysts or the chimpanzees darts. For many many years the chimps usually won so they concluded the contests. I am not saying today’s mathematical modelers would not beat chimps throwing darts at future Earth temperatures, but I will not object if you reach that conclusion. Their predictions for the past 20 years could just as well have been reached with darts because they have all been wrong.
Consider the following: we do not know all the variables but we are quite sure they are likely in the hundreds. We know how very few work. Clouds must play a significant role in the planet’s climate and we do not even know how they work. Yet today’s modelers believe they can tell you the planet’s climate decades or even a century in the future and want you to manage your economy accordingly. Either they are crazy to think this or we are crazy to believe them. I suspect both to be true.
Dr. Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian astrophysics laboratory once calculated that if we could know all the variables affecting climate and plugged them into the world’s largest computer, it would take 40 years to reach a conclusive answer.
Should we waste a single brain cell even considering the doomsday predictions that 300 scientists working in 13 government agencies all hired by President Obama are telling us we must all plan for. The answer is obvious, we should all go back to preparing for a wonderful winter holiday.

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Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute. He is an internationally renowned scientist, author, and speaker who has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions on environmental issues and consulted with nearly every agency of the national government and many foreign countries. After graduating from Princeton University at the age of 20 with a degree in Geological Engineering, he received the nation’s first Ph.D. in Groundwater Hydrology from the University of Arizona. He later became executive director of the National Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers.

Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition, and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He has 40 years experience as a mechanical engineer/project manager, science and technology communications professional, technical trainer, and S&T advisor to a former Opposition Senior Environment Critic in Canada’s Parliament.

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