No Harm to U.S. Forces – Even the Iranian leadership isn’t that Stupid

by | Jan 8, 2020 |

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Well you knew it was coming. Iran fired off a bunch of missiles targeting the United States in Iraq, for no other reason really than to try to insure that they maintained their weakening thumb of oppression on the Iranian people by a phony show of force.
After days of mourning ended in Iran following the death of the terrorist Qassem Soleimani at the hands of the United States, the Islamic Republic fired off a couple of dozen missiles in the general direction of where U.S. forces are based in Anbar Province.
None of those missiles caused any harm to U.S. forces, they were fired off as merely a symbolic gesture. I doubt Iran really wanted to kill any Americans. In fact they probably were hopeful that they didn’t kill any. After all, they had been warned by President Trump what to expect if they did. And even the Iranian leadership isn’t that stupid.
They’ve discovered that Donald J. Trump is no Jimmy Carter. In fact, he’s proving to be a stronger American leader than even Ronald Reagan was. And Ronald Reagan, at least initially when he first took office, scared the living crap out of the Iranian leadership.
So now that Iran has had their little hissy fit, where do we go from here?
Does full scale war break out between the United States and Iran?
Does the United States commit thousands of troops once again to a never ending conflict in the Middle East?
Or do we both, the Islamic Republic and the United States step back from the abyss and find a way to avoid a war that neither nation truly wants?

For me the short answer is ‘nuke em til they glow’. ‘Asphalt the entire country’. I still hold a grudge from 1979 when the Iranians took and held American diplomats hostage for four hundred forty four days.

But I understand that while firing off rhetorical attacks might feel good in the short run and let one blow off a little steam, it won’t lead to any constructive resolution to the current crisis between the two countries.
So what happens? First and foremost understand that with the Iranian leadership we are dealing with religious(?) fanatics who truly believe they are on a mission from God, and are following their divine orders.
What that means is that any negotiated settlement between Iran and the U.S. will have absolutely no value whatsoever. The Iranian leadership will never abide by any treaty or agreement that might result from negotiating. Iran views negotiations as nothing more than an opportunity to buy themselves more time as they pursue their goal of acquiring nuclear weapons. Weapons they have every intention of deploying against Tel Aviv first, and then possibly Washington afterwards.
The only way to deal with the Iranian theocracy is to cause regime change within the Islamic Republic. But the people of Iran will have to bear the pain and losses, which will be substantial, in order to rid themselves of the oppressive government they suffer under. Certainly we must provide them as much support in this effort as we can without ourselves invading Iran militarily.

The desire is there among Iran’s disproportionately young population. They yearn for change and freedom. But it is up to them to bear the burden and accept the costs.

So in the short term we allow things to calm down. Iran and it’s proxies will certainly commit some acts of terror against U.S. interests. Maybe even target one of our Arabian Gulf allies like the UAE in the hopes of driving a wedge between our two countries. Probably order one of their shadowy terrorist proxies to snatch a few Americans and hold them hostage. Keeping them at a distance from Iran and concealing their fingerprints so as to give them deniability. After all, they don’t want to get stung again.
And the United States needs to strongly consider setting a timetable of six months for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iraq. While maintaining the right to conduct whatever operations we deem necessary to insure that ISIS does not re-emerge in Iraq, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is prevented from turning Iraq into a puppet controlled by Tehran. If that means air strikes or Special Operations so be it.
And as for the Iraqi parliament voting to order us out of Iraq they need to understand…
We leave under our own terms, we don’t take orders from anyone.
Image: Military Times

Del Wilber

Del is a former under cover employee of the Central Intelligence Agency serving overseas in Eastern and Western Europe, and the Middle East. He currently does consulting work in counterterrorism and writes columns, as well as appears as a guest on a number of programs.

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